Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.

Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

A number of members on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several insiders also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.