A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
